With the VMA’s literally around the corner, it’s time to start placing bets. Last year we watched Rihanna swoop up the VMA for Video of the Year, so who will take that and more this year?
I’ll be rating each artists chances out of 10, so if an artist gets a 6/10 per say, I’m predicting they have a 60% chance to win. After the VMA’s, I’ll italicize the winners to see how the predictions played out.
Best Female Video
Demi Lovato – Heart Attack (6/10)
Miley Cyrus – We Cant Stop (2/10)
Rihanna (Feat. Mikky Ekko) – Stay (1/10)
P!nk (Feat. Nate Reuss) – Just Give Me a Reason (.75/10)
Taylor Swift – I Knew You Were Trouble (.25/10)
Demi has the lowest sales and peak here, so why is she the favorite? Demi’s Lovatics have incredible social media presence in power, so even though P!nk had the best sales, her lack of social power will be her downfall. Miley Cyrus and Rihanna also have decent stan power, but the Lovatics will trump the two here.
Best Male Video
Robin Thicke (Feat. TI and Pharrell) – Blurred Lines (3/10)
Ed Sheeran – Lego House (2.5/10)
Justin Timberlake – Mirrors (2.5/10)
Bruno Mars – Locked Out of Heaven (2/10)
Kenderick Lamar – Swimming Pools (Drank) (0/10)
Robin is the obvious front runner here, his sales along with his No.1 placement during voting are very strong ingredients for a win, along with a very controversial video. Ed Sheeran is a strong 2nd, thanks to his direct support from the Twitter beasts known as the Directioners. Bruno and JT have decent social pools and healthy sales for decent chances, while Kederick’s utter lack of social support will do him not favors whatsoever.
Best Pop Video
Miley Cyrus – We Cant Stop (4/10)
Selena Gomez – Come & Get It (3/10)
Justin Timberlake – Mirrors (2/10)
Bruno Mars – Locked Out of Heaven (1/10)
Fun. – Carry On (0/10)
Miley’s video is no stranger to controversy or viral success, so she’d destroy her competition, if it wasn’t for Selena Gomez. Selena’s video was a gorgeously shot, and less polarizing video than Miley’s, while JT’s video was elegant and classy. Basically, those who were not satisfied with Miley’s ‘unethical’ take would have no problem settling for either contender. Bruno’s was a hot mess (literally), but he did have success, while Fun. has nowhere close to the success of their competitor’s, or their fan base populations.
Best Rock Video
Imagine Dragons – Radioactive (8/10)
Mumford and Sons – I Will Wait (1/10)
Fall Out Boy – My Songs Know What You Did in the Dark (1/10)
Vampire Weekend – Diane Young (0/10)
30 Seconds to Mars – Up in the Air (0/10)
Radioactive was a hit on more formats than just Rock Songs, so it will have a much broader appeal than its fellow nominees. The sales and ridiculous longevity just crush all hopes and dreams of any of the other bands. Fall Out Boy and Mumford and Sons have the slightest chances to edge out Dragons, but its a fairly safe bet that Radioactive will prevail.
Robin Thicke (Feat. TI and Pharrell) – Blurred Lines (7/10)
P!nk (Feat. Nate Reuss) – Just Give Me a Reason (2/10)
Justin Timberlake (Feat. Jay-Z) – Suit and Tie (1/10)
Ellie Goulding and Calvin Harris – I Need Your Love (0/10)
Pitbull (Feat. Christina Aguilera) – Feel This Moment (0/10)
Nothing’s ‘Blurred’ about it, Robin has a crazy upper hand here. P!nk has the slimmest chance of succeeding, with Justin having a micron of a chance, but Robin should make room for a new trophy on his mantle for this one.
Best Video With a Social Message
Macklemore and Ryan Lewis – Same Love (6/10)
Beyonce – I Was Here (2/10)
Kelly Clarkson – People Like Us (2/10)
Miguel – Candles in the Sun (0/10)
Snoop Lion (Feat. Drake and Cori B) – No Guns Allowed (0/10)
Macklemore’s hit is the biggest of all 5 of these contenders, so he shouldn’t have to break a sweat with this one. This years inauguration crew (Bey and Kelly) have slim chances, with Kelly being active this year and Beyonce being Beyonce, but they really shouldn’t hold their breaths. Miguel and Snoop Lion’s singles don’t even have Wikipedia pages, so they’re odds are quite literally non-existent.
Video of the Year
Robin Thicke – Blurred Lines (3.5/10)
Justin Timberlake – Mirrors (2.5/10)
Macklemore and Ryan Lewis – Thrift Shop (2.5/10)
Taylor Swift (1/10)
Bruno Mars – Locked Out of Heaven (.5/10)
Typically, MTV gets it right in this category, with the best video taking home their own mini-astronaut. This year will probably be the closest year in quite sometime, with every nominee having some considerable strengths. Robin has the success and video controversy, JT has his stunning masterpiece, Macklemore have the success and a solid video, Taylor has the fan base and Bruno has the success. Even Bruno who only gets half a point could still pose a threat, thats how tight this race is. However, all the cards seem to be pointing towards Robin as this years VMA Messiah, and his record breaking year should only be extended here.
Who do you think will take home the VMA for Video of the Year? What about any of the other categories? Make your calls below!